Wirtschaft

[waanjai_2]

Ähnliches hat man ja bereits mit der Besetzung der enorm angewachsenen Stellen zur Internet-Überwachung durch frisch Graduierte gemacht. Geht alles. Zumindest eine Zeit lang. Bis man merkt, dass die Nachbarländer es cleverer gemacht haben und die Leute in zukunftsträchtige Bereiche eingesetzt haben. :-)

 

[petpet]

Seeking loans is best way now, says PM

BANGKOK, March 20 (TNA) – Seeking loans is the most appropriate way to offset a shortfall in the government’s revenue under the current economic situation, according to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Speaking of the government’s plan to increase the ceiling for state borrowing, he said Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanich would consider the matter at his own discretion.

He conceded that Thailand’s export slump and the sluggishness of global trade will reduce the government’s revenue. Should it remain still, without falling further, the economy will go into deeper recession and more people will lose jobs.

Mr. Abhisit said the government has several options which can lead to increased revenue, such as collecting more taxes, selling national assets, or borrowing.

Under the current circumstances, the government has taken the view that loans are the best way forward to offset the current shortfall in revenue, but how much it should borrow depended on the Finance Ministry’s assessment of the amounts needed, the terms and conditions to be offered.

Regarding a warning by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) that short-term loans should not be used in the implementation of long-term projects, Mr. Abhisit said he understood what the central bank is suggesting.

He said that a portion of the loans would be available to finance some projects in the second half of this year.

[highlight=yellow:f3a84e1167]However, should the economic situation fail to improve in the next few years, he said, the government would need to seek new loans to finance implementation of the country’s basic infrastructure projects.

Asked to comment on a call by the private sector for the government to tell the truth about how many years the economy would be in trouble, the premier said it is difficult for the government to predict because the US economy remains uncertain. (TNA)
[/highlight:f3a84e1167]

http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9121&t=2

Immerhin hat man wohl erkannt, dass falsche Hoffnung verbreiten ziemlich in die Hose gehen kann. Kein Wort von irgendeinem Quartal in diesem Jahr, das als das Ende der Krise erkoren wurde.

Jochen

 

[J-M-F]

die kriese kommt nun in anderer form auch in der province an.

gestern schrieb mir meine bekannte aus ubon, dass ihr vater (polizist) von steigenden überfall- und raubzahlen berichtet.
die täter lassen sich aber wohl leicht erwischen, da es meist arbeitslose rückkehrer aus den industriegebieten thailands sind, die in diesem geschäft keine erfahrung haben.

 

[Bukeo]

gestern schrieb mir meine bekannte aus ubon, dass ihr vater (polizist) von steigenden überfall- und raubzahlen berichtet.
die täter lassen sich aber wohl leicht erwischen, da es meist arbeitslose rückkehrer aus den industriegebieten thailands sind, die in diesem geschäft keine erfahrung haben.

hier nehmen Diebstähle und Überfälle auch etwas zu - sind aber meist Burmesen, die nun durch die Wirtschaftskrise ihren illegalen Hilfsarbeiter-Job in der Baubranche verloren haben und nun aber auch nicht zurück nach Burma wollen.
Es gibt aber nun massives Polizeiaufgebot, diese illegalen Burma-Einwanderer aufzuspüren und festzunehmen.

 

[petpet]

It´s the calm before the storm

Thai Takes
By PHILIP GOLINGAI

THAIS are not jumping out of buildings just yet though Thailand is facing a more severe downturn than the 1997 Asian financial crisis which saw thousands committing suicide.

“It’s yet to come. By the second quarter of this year you should see many suicides,” said the man who counselled businessmen who contemplated committing suicide when they were hit by the Asian financial crisis.

Why the second quarter? Because by then those who have not given up hope yet will have no hope.

“The Asian financial crisis affected some 200,000 Thai entrepreneurs and financial institutions but this global economic crisis will affect 63 million Thais,” warned Sirivat Voravetvuthikun, the most famous face of the 1997 financial meltdown.

Known in Thailand as “Mr Sandwich” because the 1997 crash turned him from a multi-millionaire property developer and stock market guru to a sandwich hawker, Sirivat noted that the Asian economic crisis was made in Thailand and exported to neighbouring countries, whereas the present global economic slowdown was a worldwide phenomenon.

“The Tom Yum Kung crisis (as the 1997 crisis is also known) started because we borrowed too much from overseas.

“And one of the International Monetary Fund’s requirements was for Thailand to devalue the baht,” explained the 60-year-old businessman, who operates five cafes in Bangkok called Coffee Corner.

“By devaluing the baht our foreign debt doubled overnight and many debtors, including me, went broke. And the domino effect forced the closure of Thai financial institutions.”

Mr Sandwich said Thailand’s saving grace then was that it was still able to export.

“Because of the devaluation of the baht (which made Thai exports attractive) and the good economic health of the US, Europe and Japan (which at that time represented about 50% of Thailand’s total exports) we could get out of the crisis,” he explained.

This time it is different.

“We cannot export as the whole world is in recession,” Sirivat cautioned, pointing out that exports and tourism account for 70% of Thailand’s GDP.

Tourist arrivals (which generates 500 billion baht to 600 billion baht, or RM51.3bil to RM61.6bil, a year) is down because of the world economic malaise and as a consequence of the closure of Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports in late November.

Thailand is in dire straits, he observed.

“Every day you read about export-based factories closing down and workers being laid off,” he said (estimates place the total so far at between one million and two million).

“I predict Thais will suffer. How long will we suffer? My personal opinion is we will be in trouble for at least five years. Why? Because we can’t export.”

I also asked the businessman, loaded with economic tidbits at his fingers tips, about the finance-related suicides during the Tom Yum Kung crisis.

“Yes, there were many suicides. You are talking about thousands. That’s my wild guess,” Sirivat said.

“Some committed suicide because their three-generation businesses went bankrupt.”

Despite warnings that the Thai economy is currently in dire straits there have been no media reports of Thais committing suicide, I pointed out.

“Yet to come,” Sirivat said. “Does that mean the Thai economy is still good? No, they (down and out Thais) still have hope. But when hope diminishes, you will see suicides.

“And there will be people who will give up because when they go to their relatives and friends to borrow money, they will be turned down. I’ve faced that before, but I did not give up.”

But, I told him, the Thai economy looks robust. Bangkok’s shopping malls such as Siam Paragon are full of shoppers who do not look as if they are going to jump out of a building.

“What you see is an illusion,” he countered. “Yes, you see many shoppers in Siam Paragon, but they are just enjoying the air conditioning. They are not buying.

“The shop owners at Siam Paragon will tell you that their business is down by more than 50%.

Mr Sandwich does not have faith that the unstable Abhisit Vejjajiva-led government will be able to solve Thailand’s economic woes.

“Is the prime minister a good man? Yes,” he replied to his own question. “But does he know how to run the country? Question mark.

“Did he form his government democratically? Fifty-fifty, so I expect House dissolution soon.”

http://philipgolingai.blogspot.com/2009/03/its-calm-before-storm.html

 

[Bukeo]

“Is the prime minister a good man? Yes,” he replied to his own question. “But does he know how to run the country? Question mark.

hier hätte man noch die Frage stellen müssen, ob er der anderen Alternative, d.h. Chalerm und der PT eher zu trauen würde, die Krise zu lösen.

 

[waanjai_2]

Oder die Sonntagsfrage stellen müssen:
Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Bundestagswahlen wären, welche Partei würden Sie dann wählen?
Geht es nicht um Neuwahlen in Thailand?

 

[waanjai_2]

Stellvertretend für Bukeo und sonstige Dorfschulzen suchen und finden die Teilnehmerinnen am Miss Thailand Universe Schönheitswettbewerb den Silberstreifen der ökonomischen Erholung am Horizont.

The Winner takes them all. :-)

 

[waanjai_2]

Jetzt heißt es auf einmal: Die Wirtschaft schrumpft um 3%

und zwar mit den folgenden Arbeitslosigkeitszahlen:


"Economist and former deputy prime minister Olarn Chaipravat said for each 1% contraction in GDP, some 400,000 people would lose their jobs. Based on this premise, if GDP shrinks by 3% this year, down from 2.6% growth last year, unemployment could rise to over 2 million."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/13871/economy-to-shrink-3-says-korn

Zunächst wird man sich fragen, wieviel % davon die Burmesen in Thailand betrifft. Die kann man einfach abziehen.
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13334070

Wenn dann immer noch Arbeitslose in intolerablen Ausmaßen übrig bleiben, dann muß man ´was machen oder andere Schuldige suchen.

 

[Bukeo]

Geht es nicht um Neuwahlen in Thailand?

nein, es geht nicht um Neuwahlen in TH - sind keine geplant, warum auch?

 

[Bukeo]

Wenn dann immer noch Arbeitslose in intolerablen Ausmaßen übrig bleiben, dann muß man ´was machen oder andere Schuldige suchen.

ich denke nicht, das Arbeitslosenzahlen in TH aussagekräftig sind.
Wie willst du diese den messen?
Alle Thais, die nicht in einer Bank oder grossen Firma arbeiten, gelten ja als arbeitslos - auch wenn sie eine nichtangemeldete Festanstellung haben.

 

[waanjai_2]

Deine statistischen Abgrenzungsschwierigkeiten in Ehren. Aber die thail. Politiker spüren sehr wohl, wann politisch der Teufel los ist.
Gut, die haben wohl längst so wie Du die ursprüngliche Herzensangelegenheit Neuwahlen aufgegeben. Aber in knapp 3 Jahren würden sie allerdings doch bitte ´mal direkt vom Volk gewählt werden wollen. Ob offiziell oder inoffiziell arbeitslos.

Aber erschrecken wir nicht vor der Zukunft. Zunächst kommen ja auch am Donnerstag die 2.000 Baht Pro-Nase-Save-the-Vaterland-Cheques unters Volk. Und die Rothemden haben schon darum gebeten, man solle diese ihnen geben, damit der Protest gut organisiert weitergehen kann.

Man sieht, in Thailand können viele ´nen Stimulus gebrauchen. :-)

 

[Bukeo]

Deine statistischen Abgrenzungsschwierigkeiten in Ehren. Aber die thail. Politiker spüren sehr wohl, wann politisch der Teufel los ist.

leider hat das Thaksin nicht gespürt.

Gut, die haben wohl längst so wie Du die ursprüngliche Herzensangelegenheit Neuwahlen aufgegeben. Aber in knapp 3 Jahren würden sie allerdings doch bitte ´mal direkt vom Volk gewählt werden wollen. Ob offiziell oder inoffiziell arbeitslos.

sorry, ich muss dich enttäuschen - auch in 3 Jahren wird die regierende Koalition nicht vom Volk gewählt, ausser diese wählen die PT mit absoluter Mehrheit.
Ansonsten wird wieder zugunsten der DP koaliert - egal ob das Volk die PT als stärkste Partei wählt.

Aber erschrecken wir nicht vor der Zukunft. Zunächst kommen ja auch am Donnerstag die 2.000 Baht Pro-Nase-Save-the-Vaterland-Cheques unters Volk. Und die Rothemden haben schon darum gebeten, man solle diese ihnen geben, damit der Protest gut organisiert weitergehen kann.

auch die Rothemden bekommen die Schecks, sofern sie die VOraussetzungen erfüllen. Das ist ja das Gute an Abhisit - er gibt die Kohle allen, nicht nur den Isaanern :-)

Man sieht, in Thailand können viele ´nen Stimulus gebrauchen.

nicht nur in TH, auch in D, USA usw.

 

[petpet]

PM questions sharp rise in resignations of employees

BANGKOK, March 27 (TNA) – Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Thursday said he had instructed state agencies concerned to examine whether the recent sharp increase in the numbers of employee resignations stemmed from employers imposing involuntary leave.

Normally, he said, working people would not prefer to leave their job while the economy is in the doldrums. They should realise it is more stable for their daily life and security if they continue working under the current economic situation.

Accordingly, the premier asked state officials to determine whether many more workers had recently resigned because their employers had reduced their working hours, salary or overtime payments.

Regarding a projection by some private sector executives that over 400,000 employees would be laid off in the post-Songkran festival period, Mr. Abhisit said the government continued to monitor the situation and is attempting to find way to respond to possible mass layoffs.

He conceded more workers had lost their jobs in the January-February period in part because they had decided to resign of their own accord.

Asked about his government’s second phase economic stimulus measures, requiring a budget of Bt1.56 trillion, he said a portion of the funds would come from borrowing and said the public debt might increase by 10-20 per cent.

Borrowing is one of the best options, he said, noting that a number of countries worldwide were dealing with the economic problem in this manner.

Deputy Prime Minister Kobsak Sabhavasu acknowledged that many employees had called it quits partly because they did not like their jobs or were forced to leave by their employers. (TNA)

http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9226&t=1

War es nicht so, dass der normale Lohn eines Arbeiters in BKK, also ohne Überstunden, nicht reicht um die Lebenshaltungskosten zu finanzieren?

 

[Bukeo]

War es nicht so, dass der normale Lohn eines Arbeiters in BKK, also ohne Überstunden, nicht reicht um die Lebenshaltungskosten zu finanzieren?

einfach den Lau Kao Konsum etwas drosseln, dann geht es schon.
Wenn ich sehe, wie die Männer in Gruppen saufen und die Frauen wissen nicht, woher sie Geld für das Essen der Kinder nehmen sollen, dann wundert es mich auch nicht - wenn das Geld hinten und vorne nicht reicht.

 

[waanjai_2]

Es geht weiter. Das Thema heißt u.a. Neuverschuldung. Kitzliges Thema. Gerade in Thailand.

Gestern hatte Thaksin schon sein Wirtschaftsprogramm kurz beschrieben. Vor den Rothemden in BKK. Da steht auch mehr.

Heute am Sonntag - der Abhisist hat ja inzwischen einen eigenen Kochkurs in politischer Weisheit im Fernsehen - ist er dann mit seinen Ideen 'rüber gekommen:


"Abhisit : “we need to borrow more money…”

Every sunday, there is something about Abhisit.
The alleged Prime Minister is speaking live on TV the day before. Each week. So there is always something to pick up…
This week is a good vintage. Ready ?

The government needs to seek more loans to support its economic stimulus plan in the second phase, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said. Yes. The government is broke. It was obvious. They were in denial. The crisis slashes revenues, and the government is throwing money on stupid “stimulus” policies… So, no escape : deficit. But they want more !

He said it is necessary for the government to borrow more money to ensure that 1.5 million people would still be employed. Two lunacies in one sentence. Beyond the fact that the government wants to substitute itself to private sector to create/save jobs… it wants to do it with… borrowed money ! Let’s remember the golden rule : government doesn’t create jobs per se.

Without additional loans, the economy could worsen, Mr Abhisit said on Sunday’s “Confidence in Thailand with Prime Minister Abhisit” television show. He assured that its spending would not affect the monetary and financial disciplines. Another lunacy. Discipline ? ! To borrow money, even in Thai Lalaland, costs money. It’s called… “interests”. Must be a detail for the so-called “Oxford educated” Prime Minister. This decision will directly impact the budget. It’s obvious. But little Abhisit thinks he can says huge lies on TV, with a nice smile and his nice haircut. After all : he thinks that the thai people are deeply, I mean really deeply, stupid. Probably 99,98 % of the common thai know perfectly well that the expression “borrowed money” is often the beginning of problems…

He expressed confidence that temporarily raising the public debt to 60 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is appropriate and manageable. According to the premier, obtaining loans is not complicated, since it is like borrowing money to invest in a business. But the difference is the government will have to shoulder all the burdens by itself. Oh my god, it’s the Daytona 500 of the insanity… a festival. A fireworks. The sentence is so totally absurd, stupid… well… I have to give the benefit of the doubt to Abhisit (must be a drunk reporter/editor at Bangkok Post).

To increase the tax revenue collection, taxes on alcoholic beverage products could be raised, he added. Sure. On one hand Doctor Abhisit Jekyll cuts taxes (a few gifts to his friends in the real estate business) and he’s spending like crazy on stupid “stimulus” ideas, then mister Abhisit Hyde complains that taxes collections are going down and that the deficit is increasing, and then eventually… he wants to raise taxes. Go figure. What an amateur.

“If the government stays passive, two to three million people could be out of jobs and they could create social problems. Last quarter, the economy shrank four per cent, and if the government is not doing anything this year, it could plunge nine per cent,” said the prime minister. (Bangkok Post)

Ah, eventually, Abhisit is lucid : yes we are going down. At high speed. But there is nothing he can do about it.
Abhisit and the Democrat Party (and their Frankenstein Government) will be the sacrificial lambs of the crisis.
Thaksin is waiting. Behind. Outside. He’s laughing. And then he will pick up Thailand… like a fruit.

What an irony…"

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/abhisit-we-need-to-borrow-more-money/

 

[thurien]

Es geht weiter.
...Abhisit : “we need to borrow more money…”

waanjai_zwei: ich kann nur 3, 4 Worte Englisch - mit dem Vollkwoot des engl. Textes gibst Du mir ein Problem - kannst Du das nicht auf 2, 3 deutsche Sätze verdichten?

 

[waanjai_2]

waanjai_zwei: ich kann nur 3, 4 Worte Englisch - mit dem Vollkwoot [????] des engl. Textes gibst Du mir ein Problem - kannst Du das nicht auf 2, 3 deutsche Sätze verdichten?

In den Ausnahmefällen, wo ich selbst mehr Worte kenne, ja.

Heute besagt eine Meldung, dass Thailands Industrieproduktion in diesem Jahr bislang auf 50% abgesunken ist. Ist das der langersehnte Weg in die Subsistenz-Wirtschaft?
Was passiert mit den Arbeitern, die da nix mehr produzieren?
http://nationmultimedia.com/2009/03/31/business/business_30099261.php

 

[thurien]

...: mit dem [highlight=yellow:6820bec6dc]Vollkwoot[/highlight:6820bec6dc] [????] des engl. Textes ...

ein Bekannter meinte das sei die Bedeutung von "full quote" auf deutsch

 

[waanjai_2]

Danke. Wieder ein Wort dazu gelernt.
Hier in Udon gibt es übrigens Vollkornbrot zu kaufen, was auch so heißt. :-)