- Dabei seit
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Hier eine Zusammenfassung und Hintergruende der Geschehnisse der letzten Tage seit dem ASEAN Dilemma in Pattaya:
...from Thanong Kanthong:
...from Thanong Kanthong:
aus seinem Nationmultimedia Blog
HAPPY SONGKRAN DAY!
Finally, before noon Veera Musikapong, later Natthawut Saikua and other key leaders of the Red Shirts gave up. They realised that it would be a futile exercise to continue the fight because their boss, Thaksin Shinawatra, is finished. They were unplugged.
Yes, Thaksin is finished.
It will be difficult for him to travel about because most countries would not want to welcome him now after witnessing the riots and espionage activities in Bangkok instigated by his Red Shirt supporters. Thaksin was caught making white and blant lies on CNN and BBC, feeding false information to the global audience that his Red Shirt supporters were fighting for democracy when in fact they were burning Bangkok with espionage tactics.
Thaksin is finished because he has bet all of his political fortune on April 13, the dark day of Neptune. He played out his winner's take all trump card. He set fires throughout Bangkok on the day that Neptune overshadowed the Sun to manifying its bad omens on Bangkok. He had the big milatary and police bosses on his side, including some politicians in the government wing. He did not forget to move his family out of Thailand a few days before Operation Songkran Inferno. Khunying Orr is now shopping in Dubai, still having plenty of money to spend.
Thaksin thought he could hold Thailand as his hostage by his remote control as he bargained for his return, his amnesty and his Bt76 billion assets. He thought that a royal petition would come down in his favour because he had Thailand in his palm.
But his stragtegy backfired. Thaksin failed to get the critical mass support. On the contrary, the residents of Bangkok staged an uprising against his Red Shirt supporters, who were burning Bangkok while Thaksin was acting Nero-like with his karaoke machine.
This was the critical factor. If the people -- the real people and not the people Thaksin claims he represents -- rise against the Red Shirt movement, then Thaksin can only go under. Thaksin thought that the burning of Bangkok would reach a critical level so that the country would fail into lawlessness and the military would step in to intervene in his favour.
It did not work.
The whole world knows that it has been duped by Thaksin all along. Many Thais also are disillusioned by Thaksin's ability to destroy the nation only to exchange for his return to power.
Now all the Red Shirt leaders will be going to jail, facing treason charges. If you plant a gas-tank trucks and plan to set it ablaze, you are committing an act of terrorism or espionage against the state. It is not too difficult to trace all the way as to who ordered the trucks out onto the streets.
Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has emerged as a strong leader now. His leadership has been transformed overnight, from a lameduck PM forced to cancel the Asean Summit in Pattaya into a leader who could defuse the political crisis in the most subtle way. There has been no losses of life at all from the authorities' crackdown against the Red Shirts. Only two persons have been pronounced dead by the shooting of the Red Shirts.
Abhisit has prevailed because he managed to bounce out of the corner as the military, the police, the security people and his own political partners had tried to frame him. We have no evidence to substantiate the doubts that these top people formed a link with Thaksin.
But you don't see the face of Gen Anupong Paochinda nor that of Pol Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan during the Red Shirt's ambush of the Asean Summit. The security people were not doing their duty at all. They stood idle while the Red Shirts succeeded in ruining the Asean Summit. So far they have not come out to show any responsibility for failing to provide security to the Summit and the regional leaders as well as Thailand's guests.
Abhisit is known to have sought advice from a special unit, set up in haste under his command. As Thaksin played out his cards one by one, the advisors countered each effectively until Thaksin lost all of his bet.
At this hour, with the State of Emergency power rested in his hand, Abhisit -- not the army chief -- is the most powerful person in Thailand. He must use this occasion of his rising popularity in curbing the Red Shirts to deal with the failure of the Thai security apparatus, which has been undermining the national interest and including the government's stability.
We expect to see a reshuffle soon of the top security and peace keeping personnel.
If Abhisit resorts to his timid Oxford graduate role, he would miss out an opportunity to frame his leadership going forward. Now is the time to do it.