On the fast track to becoming a failed state
On June 13, 2009, I referred to four prophecies that foretold a cataclysmic event in 2012. Among the four, only Irvin Laszlo the philosopher and scientist, discusses factors contributing to such an event. The other three do not, leading to different interpretations.
Five months after I wrote that article, the movie 2012 was released. The film is based on one interpretation, namely, a massive solar flare causes the temperature in the earth´s core to rise rapidly, making the earth´s crust highly unstable. As continents begin to shift, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mountain-high tsunamis kill all human beings except those fortunate enough to get on one of four gigantic arks specially designed to survive such cataclysmic events.
That storyline made for good entertainment but nothing beyond that, because if something like that were really to happen, few Thais, if any, would survive, for it would cost one billion euros per family to secure seats on an ark and only billionaires with special connections would know of the arks.
I prefer to think of the thesis proposed by Laszlo in his book The Chaos Point: The World at the Crossroads, published in early 2006. Laszlo argues that from 2006 to 2012, we humans have an opportunity to reverse the bad trends created by our activities. If we succeed, the world will move towards a sustainable path. Otherwise, it will move towards a total breakdown. The world will reach a fork in the road it is now travelling on in 2012 and whatever path it takes then, it will not be able to backtrack.
The Laszlo thesis can be applied not only to the world as a whole but also to a particular society. When I apply it to Thailand, what I see is quite depressing. This is because when I look at some bad trends, they have accelerated instead of starting to be reversed.
I have already touched upon some salient issues relating to the destruction of the environment and the mismanagement of water resources in my articles of March 17 and 31. No more need be said except that the destruction continues unabated.
Although there are other disturbing trends, I believe the one that is pushing Thailand towards the fork in the road and which will cause it to take the path leading to total breakdown, is the development giving rise to the conflicts of the last few weeks. Conflicts between the red shirts and the government are often labelled political, but I believe they reflect something much broader and deeper.
Measured conventionally, Thailand has achieved rapid modernisation and economic growth over the past few decades. But these achievements have come at a steep price. I have already mentioned the conflict with the environment leading to its destruction. Along the way, conflicts among people have also increased significantly. This is because economic growth has accrued largely to the better-off while a large segment of the population remains mired in abject poverty and under a mountain of debt.
With modern communications, the glaring differences in incomes and standards of living are there to be seen daily by the poor and the highly indebted. They see unfairness and are easily persuaded to do things which otherwise they would not even consider doing. Worse, a large segment of the better-off is getting richer by engaging in shady business practices and in many cases outright criminal activity; they start by using political connections and corruption as grease but have recently taken control of the political process itself. Most provinces, municipalities and local administrative districts are now largely controlled by politico-business oligarchies. Each oligarch uses a system of patronage to maintain its base.
Sometimes they fight but they also collude, especially at the national level. This collusion has been made easier by modern technologies and especially by the culture of corruption and indifference that I wrote about on July 9 and Nov 11.
As a result, Thailand is now practically divided into fiefdoms controlled by shady people with money.
The conflict of the last few weeks reflects disagreements among them as well as with some politicians who are a little more idealistic and thus not willing to accommodate their wishes.
As most Thais remain indifferent to whatever the oligarchs are doing, the idealistic politicians will lose the current battle, leaving Thailand to be governed by the rich crooks. The latter will soon put the country on the path towards total breakdown, making Thailand a failed state long before recent college graduates draw their pensions.
Only a miracle can save us now.
