Als Freitage noch Freitage waren ...

[ccc]

Was ist aus diesem Forum geworden? Jahrelang waren die Freitagsfreds ein integraler Bestandteil der Community. Man wusste an diesem Wochentag, dass der triste Forenalltag endlich wieder aufgehellt werden würde, mit Themen wie etwa den folgenden (frei erfundenen, aber an ähnliche angelehnt):

... meiner Freundin sterben dauernd die Wasserbüffel weg. Kennt jemand eine robuste Wasserbüffelart, die länger als 2 Monate lebt?

oder auch

... meine Freundin ist super, erst vor 5 Monaten kennengelernt und heute hat sie schon unser Baby geboren

Auch heute geht wieder ein Freitag zu Ende, und ich vermisse schon wieder den dazugehörenden Fred! Seit geraumer Zeit fällt auf, dass diese liebgewordene Tradition des Forums nicht mehr gepflegt wird. Ich vermute, diese Verschlechterung hängt - wie so viele andere - mit der Junta zusammen, die ja den todernsten Auftrag zur "Happyness" erlassen hat. Da ist kein Platz mehr für ein wenig "Spaß" oder "Unterhaltung".

Ich möchte an dieser Stelle ein Lanze brechen für den traditionellen Freitagsfred!

Zum Teufer mit der "Häppiness", lasst uns jeden Freitag wieder durchstarten mit "Fun and Laughter"!

 

[Hansi]

Da must Du Dich bei Vorenkollegen wie Yogi bedanken. Selbst zu Stauder schwangrer Stunde halten die Kollegen Gesinnungs-Wacht.

 

[wasa]

Ich meine der Freitags Thread ist nicht mehr noetig,denn wir haben doch jetzt durchgehend einige Spassthreads hier ....

 

[Yogi]

Da must Du Dich bei Vorenkollegen wie Yogi bedanken. Selbst zu Stauder schwangrer Stunde halten die Kollegen Gesinnungs-Wacht.

Ich kann jederzeit den Schalter umlegen.
Was ich aber nicht verstehe, warum du mich so verbissen stalkst.

 

[Yogi]

Ich möchte an dieser Stelle ein Lanze brechen für den traditionellen Freitagsfred!

Ich würde lieber den Markus Lanze am Freitag brechen sehen.

 

[Hansi]

.......
Was ich aber nicht verstehe........

Die Lösung heist................: Gesinnungs-Wacht!

 

[Yogi]

Die Lösung heist................: Gesinnungs-Wacht!

Entschuldige Hansi, aber ich wache nicht über deine Gesinnung. Die ist mir ehrlich gesagt vollkommen egal.
Ich mache mir nur Gedanken über meine eigene Gesinnung, die ich auch verteidige (auch offensiv).

Wenn ich dabei auch manchmal jemanden rhetorisch überrolle, ist halt so. Du kannst dich aber gegen mich wehren.
Mir ist doch seitens unserer Regierung, ohne mich überhaupt zu kennen, auch der "Rechtsradikalismus" übergestülpt worden.
Ich habe da weniger Möglichkeiten, gegen die vor zu gehen.

 

[clavigo]

manchmal jemanden rhetorisch überrolle

Nana, ist da jemand der Anzug 'ne Nummer zu groß geworden (oder das Stauder zu Kopf gestiegen)?

 

[Yogi]

Nana, ist da jemand der Anzug 'ne Nummer zu groß geworden (oder das Stauder zu Kopf gestiegen)?

Wieso kommst du hier eigentlich ohne Fremdworte rüber?
Riesling heisst das Stöffchen.

 

[clavigo]

Schade, dann hätte ich gerne mitgemacht. (Sorry, hab' mein Fremdwörterlexikon verlegt)

 

[Yogi]

Schade, dann hätte ich gerne mitgemacht. (Sorry, hab' mein Fremdwörterlexikon verlegt)

Jetzt hilflos?
Oppa, ich bin kein Anstinker, nur ein Stinker.

Würde gerne mal ein Bier mit dir trinken, Hartwig

 

[Otto-Nongkhai]

Ist wieder Sommerloch im Nittaya und das bei dieser Kaelte hier (nachts) und starken Windboehen???

Wir haben hier immer nur Freitag und wenn man gerade eine lustige Geschichte hat ist das eben Zufall.

Das Leben ist bestimmt nicht mehr lustig,aber irgendwo in der Ferne gibt es noch den einen und anderen Lichtblick.

Ich habe aber im Nittaya eher den Eindruck,wenn sich hier einige fetzen,beleidigen und anpoepeln dann haben die Zaumgaeste ihren Spass und dann erst ist wieder Freitag.

PS.Ein Forum ist wie eine (Bild)Zeitung,
wenn nichts passiert wirds langweilig und man kann die Zeitung gleich in den Ofen stecken.

 

[clavigo]

@Yogi, sachma, wennze nach Essen komms. Obwohl ich hab Sohnemann schon immer von den Vorzügen des Rheingaus erzählt; von den Produkten und vom Wandern.....

 

[wasa]

... ich bin kein Anstinker, nur ein Stinker.

Fuer mich das "Wort des Tages",denn nur durch Selbsterkenntnis reift man.

 

[Hansi]

Fuer mich das "Wort des Tages",denn nur durch Selbsterkenntnis reift man.

Ein schöner Sinnspruch! Solltest Dir mal zu Herzen nehmen.

 

[wasa]

Mensch Hansilein,dich habe ich schon vermisst.
Deine bescheuerten Postings sind ja immer der Hit.
ich habe allerdings den Eindruch DU bist hier im Forum etwas ueberfordert,denn du verstehst keine Zusammenhaenge,

 

[Hansi]

Musst Du denn immer so garstig sein, mein Wasalein?

Schau: Nicht jeder hat Deine überragende Intelligenz und deine beeindruckende soziale Kompetenz. Auch für Mauerblümchen wie meiner einer muß es doch noch ein Plätzchen im Vorum geben?

 

[MadMac]

Er ist halt als Senior Consultant in den Ruhestand gegangen, und war in der Position kein Arzt. Jetzt gibt es eben Klongfische jeden Tag

 

[DisainaM]

THANK GOD, ITS FRIDAY

eine Abhandlung zum Thema,
wieviel Geld braucht man zum Leben in Thailand, von einem Amerikaner

We've probably all met or known guys who have come to Pattaya to "retire" only to be on a plane home broke at some future point. This obviously is something we all would like to avoid if possible. In the simplest form, the reason this happens is spending exceeded savings and income. That's really it. So in order to predict the risk of running out of money, I have made a fairly simple formula that allows one to approximate the answer to the question of "Do I have Enough".

Just for discussion purposes I am going to walk through the formula. And if I could just say this before I get started: I am NOT an expert, a financial wizard, a Mr. Know It All or an all wise Oracle of Knowledge.

One thing, as an aside, I really hate is when people say things to the effect that "I think I am a financial Guru" or things along those lines. I don't claim that. There, I've got that grouchiness out of the way. So here goes.


The key to me is that a person first figure out a budget. Answer the question "how much per month will I spend". Then you can determine how much you need to save, how much you need to earn from work, etc. Answering the question of "what kind of budget I want to have" is not an easy question, but it is important.

Here are some links to budget line item expenses:

Cost of Living in Thailand-Living Costs for Expats

Cost of Living in Thailand. Prices in Thailand. Updated Dec 2014

Cost of living in Thailand | Expat Arrivals

Cost of living in Thailand | How much I need to retire in Thailand?

And if you prefer an actual "plug in the numbers" type of budget calculator, here is one of those:


Thrift Savings Living Abroad

Here is another calculator. It's made with the UK in mind as it has "council tax" but I like it. You can use your number for total tax liability in the council tax slot and customize your Thailand expenses into the calculator. It also has a spot for retirement savings-which is useful if you are working and trying to save money instead of being a true retiree:


Household budget calculator | This is Money

O.K., enough links about planning a budget!




Here is the formula. Before anyone's eyes glaze over or they have a flashback to High School math class and start to have a seizure, I will walk through the meaning of this. It is really simple and the formula itself allows me to ask myself some important questions.



B=P+I+(N)/20-T


Where:

1) B=Budget

This is REALLY important. That's why I put in all of the links above, so you can figure out "B", you annual expenditures. In order to figure out whether you have "enough" to become a permanent ex-Pat in Fun City, you need to understand your spending needs. Will that be 40,000 Baht a month? 80? 150? Knowing a detailed budget is, generally, a great starting point. But I do want to point out if you have ALL the other variables figured out you can ask yourself a different question, that is, given my savings, my desire to work and my income streams, how much of a budget can I afford? So if you want, you can solve for B. Basically, you can solve for any one variable if you know the others.


2) P=Pension income (private+government)

Pensions are wonderful things. They give an income stream for life and sometimes at least (sorry, British Ex-Pats on a Government Pension) they are inflation adjusted over time. This number is the sum total of all government or private company pensions you will be receiving (pre-tax, taxes come later). If you are younger than retirement age, generally speaking, this number will be zero. If it is zero but you will get a pension some number of years in the future I'd still put this in as zero and just use that future money as "extra" income when the day comes unless you are just a couple years away from getting the pension.


3) I=Income (either from working, or from fixed income investments like property rents, royalties, sales from online store, etc)

This variable includes two things:

First, it includes what we call "unearned income" in the states. This is money you receive from rent if you own rental property (net of property expenses/overhead but not net of taxes). This might be royalties you receive from Grandpa's oil well if you are so blessed to have an oil rich granddaddy. This would include interest from bonds IF you were not touching the principal of the bonds and spending down this principal (if you are doing that it goes into N below). This number includes any income streams that you have coming in.

Second, this includes actual work. Are you going to be a school teacher? Well, the income you make from working goes here.


4) N="nest egg" or your retirement savings. This number includes things like a private retirement account you might have been stashing money in over your working career. It also includes the non-retirement account stocks, mutual funds and bonds that you will spend down over the course of retirement. Now you will notice that this number is divided by 20. Why am I doing that? I basically am using an aggressive draw down rate of 5%. Wait, you might say! 5% doesn't sound aggressive. But the fact of the matter it is aggressive. Most "experts" (and again, I am not an expert) recommend this number start a 4% (divide by 25 instead of 20). One then increases the amount drawn every year to keep up with inflation. Doing a 4% draw so adjusted gives a person a good chance (but not a certainty) that their savings will last 30 years.


So why am I using 5%? Well, older guys might find 30 years unreasonable. If you retire at 60, do you *really* think you need the money to last 30 years? But I would say this: If you are younger, which I would define as under 55 OR your ONLY source of money is your retirement savings (i.e. you have no income or pension money flowing in) then I would use a smaller number. For guys in the 50-55 or so age range I would use 4% (divide N by 25). And even younger guys, such as fellows retiring in their 30's or 40's (lucky dogs) I would use 3% (divide N by 34). These smaller numbers may not sound like a big difference, but they really balloon up the savings number you need if you are depending on this draw!

And as this is the money section, I will go into a little more detail about "N". There are assumptions built into "N" in addition to the fact you will have a four or five percent year one draw. First, it is assumed that this money will be invested in broad based indexes properly weighted between stocks and bonds and managed with a low fee structure of 30 basis points. If your funds are being hit with higher fees, you have to deduct these fees out of the draw just like a tax! So in either the scenario of having cash stuffed in your mattress (i.e. not properly invested) or having them invested with an expensive broker (fund fees too high) you will end up learning the hard way that your nest egg is depleted at a faster rate than the models project due to inflation (mattress) or poor performance (fund fees eating up returns). Be very careful with your nest egg and invest it wisely and carefully. But that is really the only detail I want to go into on "N" in this post.

5) T: Taxes.

Don't forget about TAXES! If you are getting pension money, there is a good chance it will be taxed. If you are drawing retirement or other savings you might be paying income or capital gains taxes. Taxes have been many a would be ex-pat's undoing. Do not forget to figure out what your tax bill or estimate it as best you can. This has to be SUBTRACTED out of the equation as the money goes away.

There are a variety of ways to estimate taxes. But keep in mind, the best estimation is still an estimation. I'd suggest using a flat rate on the overall budget, like 15%. However, you can become much more complex if you want, taking the tax liability of each income stream into account and applying whatever tax rate you have for each income stream. But even doing this is not perfect because taxes can change over time. They can go down (yeah, right) or up. But the important thing to me in planning is to think about taxes. Put in *some* kind of estimated number for unless you are a very lucky ex-pat you will be paying some kind of taxes.


Comment: The Beer Bar!

I probably should put in another number to subtract. But I am not going to do that because I am going to talk you out of buying a beer bar instead! What am I talking about? Well, the "business investment" that will allow you to "live like a King" in Pattaya due to it's cash flow. This is, of course, the quintessential beer bar investment. The problem is, not only does it eat up whatever cash from "N", your savings, to buy the damned thing but just like taxes it subtracts out money each and every month like a blood drinking leech.

If you want to have a hobby and own a beer bar, great, subtract out an extra 100,000 baht or so a month from this number!

Bottom line: NEVER count on an "investment" in Pattaya to generate anything except negative cash flow. As a rule of thumb, when the fella pitching you the beer bar to buy says it makes 100,000 baht a month profit just assume whatever number you are given is going to be negative, i.e. in reality it will cost you 100,000 baht per month.

Please, don't buy any damned beer bars! Or any other "investment" for that matter as buying a beer bar is the "sick water buffalo" prototype of the bad investment!

Of course, you guys in the money section already know better than to buy a beer bar. Still, I feel better getting that off my chest!



OK, if you have made it this far let's solve some variables!


Scenario 1:


Solve for B:


Fred has a nest egg of $200,000 in various retirement accounts, he receives a social security payment of $800 per month. He's not going to work or earn any income. His aggregate tax rate is 10%. What is his budget?

B=$9600+0+$200,000/20-$1,960

P=$800*12, or $9600, his annual pension income
I=0, no income
N=$10,000, a safe draw from pensions as he is taking 5% in year one.

These numbers total $19,600, so 10% of this goes to taxes, which is where the $1960 comes from.

Thus, B, his annual budget is $17,640.


This sets a monthly budget of $1,470 or, using 30-1 on the baht, 44,000 baht per month. That's it, for this scenario. Even with a pension of $800 (24,000 Baht) per month and savings of $200,000 (6 million Baht) Fred gets to enjoy only a modest, but certainly livable, budget of 44,000 baht per month. And note, over time this WILL increase with inflation. So every year going forward it goes up a little bit preserving (in theory at least) his initial purchasing power.


So really anyone can plug in their own numbers and solve for any variable. Want to solve for N, the nest egg you need to retire? You need, of course, to know B, or how much you plan to spend, as well as whether you have a pension coming in, about what your taxes will be (estimate) and whether you will work. Let's walk through N for Fred's brother Joe, who wants to buy a beer bar and live like a King in Pattaya on the profits as his girlfriend told him this would be a TERRIFIC idea and she would even run the beer bar for him!


Scenario 2: Solve for N. First, let's re-arrange the formula.


N=(B-P-I+T)*20

Thus, to figure out your nest egg you need to take B, your annual budget (monthly number *12), add in T, the amount you estimate to pay in taxes, subtract from this both P, any pension money you will receive and I, any income you will earn from all sources and then take this number, whatever it is and multiply it by 20. That gives you a very rough estimation of N, how much you need to have saved up. Now, let's look at Joe.


Fred's brother, Joe, knows he needs a budget of 80,000 baht per month. He will have no pensions coming in and, being lazy, doesn't want to work. He will pay a 10% marginal tax rate. And after buying Eyenitnoy a beer, he was talked out of investing in a beer bar so no losses there!


N=<1.2 million baht (annual spending)-0 (pension)-0(income)+120,000 baht (taxes)>*20=26.4 million Baht. In dollars, using 30-1 as exchange, this comes to $880,000! Joe faints upon seeing this number as he only has $100,000 saved but his girlfriend told him that was just like winning the lottery and would be more than enough to support her forever! But the sad fact is Joe does not have enough and he should not delude himself that he does. He's not even close, even if he cuts B, his budget. He needs to either get a job while in Pattaya or save more before retiring or both.


This illustrate an important point. If you are just living off savings, you need a lot of money for even modest budgets. You need more than you think! Pensions are really, really helpful here as they reduce the amount you need to have saved. If Joe would have had a 40,000 baht per month pension, this would have cut his needed nest egg in half! But it still would be a sizeable number. This is why many, if not most, guys you see making it long term as retirees have a pension. Be very careful with your spending plans if you have no pension and are just going to live off your investments. Indeed, I worry that younger guys-who generally have no company pensions and will have very modest government pensions when they are very old-will have a very hard time retiring to Pattaya later in this century when "their turn" comes around.


Example Three: The split formula.


What is the split formula? Well, that is a nice way to look at a situation where you will have a future pension many years down the road. Let's say Fred and Joe have a younger brother, Sammy. He wants to retire right now and is 45 years old. Wait, you say! Sammy is the younger brother and his oldest brother Fred is only able to get by on a modest budget and the middle brother, Joe, is a financial train wreck. How can Sammy possibly even *think* of retirement? Well, in short, Sammy is not like his brothers. He is thrifty. Sammy has been working since age 18, or 27 years. That's not long enough, you might say. And he won't even be able to get a pension for 20 years! But Sammy has been a hard worker in the states and as I said, he has been thrifty. Each and every year he saved $10,000. About $7500 came out of his after tax income, the other $2500 came from a matching fund from his employer for a retirement account. He took a heavy construction job which pays pretty well here in the U.S. even though he didn't go on to college or get in a union and saving $7500 a year was doable as it amounted to $625 a month or about $288 per paycheck or about $3.60 per hour of his wages saved. He worked a lot of overtime and saved a fair amount of money and didn't even find it all that hard as construction jobs pay well above the minimum wage. He thus saved about 20% of his income. So how much does he have after 27 years?


27 years: Average savings: $10,000 per year, split 50-50 between retirement account savings (various matches included in the total) and private non-retirement account savings, in addition he will qualify in the future for U.S. social security.


I will assume an average return of 6.5% for that $10,000 per year saved since age 18: So how much will he have?

http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/savings/simple-savings-calculator.aspx

The answer is $733,000! The wonder of compound interest! So, in this example he will have:


$366,000 in retirement accounts and $366,000 in non-retirement accounts.

In addition, he has decided to take social security at age 65, slightly below his full retirement age benefit which would require him waiting until age 67 but above the minimum benefit he could obtain at age 62. The average benefit today is $1,294. He is going to be a little under the average because he worked 27 years, not the 35 years the average beneficiary works. His benefit will be $1,000 in the future-and this number will be inflation adjusted over time so even though that number is 20 years in the future the purchasing power will be the same. (I assume, for simplicity, matching inflation between US and Thailand which may or may not be true)


So, now on to the split formula: Basically, Sammy has to figure out two different formulas and solutions for "B", what his budget can be. Each will be twenty year time blocks.


a) Age 45-65 Block:

B=0(pension)+0(income)+$19,400 (N=$388,000/20)-$500 (Taxes-very low in this example as his capital gains rate is 15% but he is also drawing tax free principal and has a personal deduction on income taxes in the US.)

B=$1575 or 47,250 baht per month.

And remember, this is annual adjusted for inflation. Furthermore, IF he wanted to supplement this number, he could get a job. If he started working as a teacher, say, he could bump up this monthly number with "I", income, from working. It turns out Sammy has always wanted to be a teacher and has taken a job with a Thai school and discovered not only will he have another 25,000 Baht in income, but he will get health insurance and even retirement benefits down the road! And even before work he has more money than his oldest brother!

b.) 65-85 Block:

After twenty years, it's time to do a re-calculation. I am making things simple here and using the assumption that inflation/exchange over time exactly matches the growth of "N", his nest egg. This means I can use the same numbers above, but you can re-calculate using different assumptions if you like. If your investment performance exceeds inflation growth you will have more purchasing power in the future and if it under-performs inflation growth you will have less. Also, future currency shifts work the same as inflation from a math perspective, so you can try to guess how currency will move in the future if you like as well. I am just assuming everything is constant. Thus, in the future:


B=$1,000 (pension, in current dollars)+0 (Income, he wont work)+ $19,400 (Again, inflation adjusted nest egg dollars)-$3,000 (Taxes: I have his tax payments higher in the future in inflation weighted dollars for a reason. Taxes have gone up over the 20 years that passed, imagine that, governments taking more money in the future!)

B=$28,400 or 71,000 baht per month.


So in this particular example, Sammy is in a great spot. He has enough to live modestly at his young age. He can supplement this with working if he wants, because he is young enough to do so. When he gets older, he will get a pension, albeit a modest one. But with this pension and his retirement savings sitting and compounding over time, in *inflation adjusted* terms he will have more money down the road when this kicks in. And I didn't even assume any Thailand social security as this is a made up example and I don't even know if working as a teacher for 20 years in Thailand would qualify him for a pension. But it might and he doesn't need it anyway!


This calculation paints a more accurate picture for younger retirees like Sammy. One does not need assume spending will be constant over time in inflation adjusted terms. You can start low and increase spending down the road when you are older-probably a wise scenario to plan. Younger guys shouldn't have medical bills, can get girls cheaper and can live in cheaper flop houses with less concern than old timers. So it is actually easier for young guys to live on the cheap than the old timers. After all, when you are 70 you are going to look at living inside a "fan room" a little differently than when you were 20!


Remember the option split calculation when doing you planning! You can split plan this formula as much as you want! (I am doing a 6month or 1 year split plan for my first year for example, with many other splits down the road.)


I will not bore the reader with any more examples. These were just a couple for fun. Try it yourself, using your own numbers. Even post them in the thread if you are not shy with sharing such private information or mail the figures to me if you want me to post them anonymously in this thread. This formula is very simple and it gives a rough estimation for anyone. If these numbers don't "work out" or "balance" and you are spending more than your nest egg supports, you will run out of money. (Unless you change the variables in some way before it is too late.) I think this is a good way to think about a planned retirement and it is also a good exercise if you are already living in Pattaya to see if you really do have enough as knowing these numbers could allow you to take a different future trajectory by changing spending, earning, etc.


Many a would be ex-Pat could have saved himself a lot of heartache if he would have just plugged into the equation these numbers before making the leap of faith and "retiring" to Pattaya.

And again, I am not an expert. I am just a money section poster with a little time on my hands on a still cold in Chicago Saturday morning!


Good Luck everyone!

Retirement Spending/asset/income Match Formula - Secrets - Money Matters. - The Pattaya Club

 

[clavigo]

And again, I am not an expert

Das erklärt vieles!