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Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

Erstellt von DisainaM, 12.07.2007, 16:46 Uhr · 6 Antworten · 1.715 Aufrufe

  1. #1
    Avatar von DisainaM

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    15.11.2000
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    Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    An der Börse heißt es,
    SELL in May, go away

    während es bei Immobilien heißt, investieren, wenn die Preise unten sind,
    doch die Frage,
    - sind die Preise in Thailand unten ?
    - und stimmen die fundamentals, die Rahmenbedingungen, um in diesen Markt zu finvestieren ?

    eine Stellungnahme im Herald Tribune

    Bangkok builds on shaky ground
    by Jennifer Chen - International Herald Tribune, published: July 5,
    2007.

    Bangkok is undergoing a condominium-building boom that brings to mind
    the go-getting expansion in the 1990s - and memories of the bubble
    that followed.


    An example is Sukhumvit Road, a congested thoroughfare in central
    Bangkok lined with apartments that are hugely popular with
    expatriates. Every few blocks a new building is going up; the sound of
    jackhammers reverberates day and night. And throughout the city,
    dozens of roadside billboards advertise the latest developments.


    But for Ian Soo, managing director of a high-end real estate agency in
    Bangkok, all this activity is cause for trepidation, not joy.
    In the past six months, inquiries from prospective buyers have fallen
    by 40 percent, said Soo, who heads Hamptons Property, an agency that
    sells luxury condominiums and whose clients mostly are foreign
    expatriates. Prices for the units on Hamptons' rosters range from
    studios for 4 million baht, or almost $123,000, to three-bedroom units
    for 60 million baht. "We're probably one of the most aggressive
    agencies in central Bangkok and, if we're experiencing quiet times,
    other agencies are probably experiencing something similar or worse,"
    the British transplant said. "It's a buyers' market out there."


    Things have not always seemed so gloomy for residential developers.
    Before Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a military coup
    last September, Thailand had finally shrugged off the last vestiges of
    the 1997 Asian financial crisis and scores of foreign investors,
    viewing Bangkok as an undervalued market with enormous potential, had
    snapped up condominiums. Many of the projects being built in central
    Bangkok today were announced during Thaksin's tenure.


    But the situation has changed. Consumer confidence dropped in the wake
    of the coup and the country's struggle to chart a smooth course back
    to democracy has dampened it even more. In addition, the
    military-installed government has taken steps to limit foreign
    investment and, in December, the central bank announced new capital
    controls, including a requirement that 30 percent of any foreign money
    brought into the country must be held in reserve.


    The bank's announcement Dec. 18 led to a 15 percent plunge in the
    country's stock market, its worst-ever fall. Faced with a barrage of
    criticism at home and abroad, the bank later softened its stance, but
    the move reinforced perceptions that the government was bungling the
    economy. And those perceptions, compounded with fears about the
    country's continuing political uncertainty, are already having a
    direct impact on its economy. With domestic consumption slowing and
    private investment contracting, officials are predicting slower
    economic growth this year.


    Foreign investors, however, have been most worried about government
    plans to tighten legal loopholes that have allowed foreigners to run
    Thai-based companies, including real estate businesses, and to own
    land.


    Not exactly the best time to market property, you might think, and Soo
    agrees. "And a lot of people are thinking, 'Hang on, there's a lot of
    building going on,' " Soo said. The question for investors is whether
    a crash is coming as too many projects chase too few buyers.


    Statistics lend some credence to those concerns. According to a
    January report from the property consulting company Jones Lang
    LaSalle, more than 27,000 new condominium units - or about half of
    Bangkok's current housing supply - are expected to be completed by
    2009. At the same time, sales of projects that are not completed
    dropped to 2,440 units in the second half of 2006 from 7,110 units in
    the first half of the year. And a separate Jones Lang LaSalle report
    said average rents and average capital value dipped in the fourth
    quarter of last year due to weaker consumer sentiment, political
    turmoil and greater supply.


    It is not just the rocky politics and curbs on investment and capital
    inflows that have dented overall sentiment toward Bangkok's high-rise
    accommodation. Other government actions also have led to the general
    feeling that, while Thailand continues to welcome foreigners as
    tourists, it does not want them to stick around.


    "They're turned off," Marcus Collins, a property lawyer in Bangkok,
    said about his foreign clients. "And there are other circumstances
    that turn them off, including the fact that it's more difficult to get
    work permits and it's more difficult to get long-term visas. There's a
    lot of negative news coming out of Thailand that aggravates people."


    So far though, most property analysts, developers and others involved
    in the sector remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for
    Bangkok's condominium market, especially at the top end.


    "Every time I've seen a problem come up in Thailand - I've seen four
    coups, one financial crisis - Thailand has basically done this," David
    Simister said as he tilted his hand upwards. Simister, chairman of the
    property services company CB Richard Ellis Thailand, added, "There
    have been blips in between, and of course during the Asian crisis we
    did have negative take-up and we did have office space prices
    dropping. But we didn't get a significant drop in property prices."


    Simister is not alone in his bullishness. Many analysts and developers
    argue that Bangkok's luxury condominium market, where most foreign
    investment is focused, can withstand such temporary setbacks.


    Bangkok's prices are much cheaper than other cities: only slightly
    more than $185 per square foot, or about $2,000 per square meter, with
    a 7 percent annual gain in capital value, in comparison with prices of
    nearly $1,600 per square foot and a 3 percent annual gain in Hong
    Kong, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.


    And while the proposed amendments to the Foreign Business Act, the
    main law that governs foreign investment in Thailand, have undoubtedly
    eroded confidence, they will not affect the condominium market in the
    long run because land ownership is not involved, said Dan
    Tantisunthorn, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle's Bangkok
    office. Also, Thais still make up the majority of condominium buyers
    in Bangkok. "The proportion of foreigners who either buy for their own
    use here in Bangkok or for investment purposes is low relative to the
    number of Thai buyers," Tantisunthorn said.


    Even in the case of properties with land, like the villas on the
    resort islands of Phuket and Koh Samui, which have become hugely
    popular with foreign retirees, the amended act probably would not
    trigger any nationalization of foreign-owned properties, said Collins,
    who has lived in Thailand for 17 years.


    Most villa projects offer 30-year leases rather than freeholds, with
    the option of switching to longer leases if the government ever allows
    them, he said. "If you're an individual home buyer or land buyer, you
    don't fall under the FBA because you don't engage in any business," he
    said, referring to the Foreign Business Act. He added that individuals
    who rent out villas in popular holiday destinations like Phuket and
    Koh Samui should be safe from the proposed changes.


    Owners of holiday villas and condominiums also can expect to enjoy
    good rental returns, especially in Phuket, where the tourism sector
    has just enjoyed a record-setting high season. "No matter how badly
    they ..... it up economically, holiday makers don't really care. They
    only care about things like diseases, wars and civil unrest. They
    don't care whether you've got a good or bad government," Collins said
    (...)


    whole article: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/04/news/rebang.php?

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  3. #2
    Avatar von Dieter1

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    Re: Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    Die generelle Frage, lohnt es sich in x, y oder z in Immobilien zu investieren oder nicht, laesst sich nicht ebenso pauschal beantworten.

    Der Immobilienmarkt ist eine vielschichtige Angelegenheit, in Muenchen wie in Bangkok und so wird es immer zur gleichen Zeit sowohl lohnende Invests geben als auch solche, die man besser gelassen haette :-) .

    Ich persoenlich muss feststellen, dass eine Investition in Wohnimmobilien fuer die bangkoker Mittelschicht durchaus interessant ist.

  4. #3
    Avatar von Serge

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    Re: Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    Es gibt diverse Szenarien gerade fuer den Bangkoker Markt, feststeht jedoch das der Kern des Geschaeftes zwischen Sukhumvit Soi 1 und 21 also Asoke stattfindet. Hier ist es nach wie vor sehr interessant, allerdings muss man sich extrem gut mit der neuen Gesetzgebung befassen. Wuerde im Moment auch eher auf kurzfristige Investitionen setzen, aber das ist fuer aussenstehende eher schwierig. Kurzfristig heisst Liquidation des Investments innerhalb eines Jahres.

    Thailand im Ganzen ist um einiges vielschichtiger, bietet jedoch enorme Chancen, diese aber wie immer verbunden mit enormen Risiken. Fuer den Einsatz des Spargroschens wohl eher nichts.

  5. #4
    ffm
    Avatar von ffm

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    Re: Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    Zitat Zitat von Serge",p="503348
    Wuerde im Moment auch eher auf kurzfristige Investitionen setzen, aber das ist fuer aussenstehende eher schwierig. Kurzfristig heisst Liquidation des Investments innerhalb eines Jahres.

    Thailand im Ganzen ist um einiges vielschichtiger, bietet jedoch enorme Chancen, diese aber wie immer verbunden mit enormen Risiken. Fuer den Einsatz des Spargroschens wohl eher nichts.
    Das hoert sich sehr interessant an, laesst aber doch noch Fragen offen. Ich moechte nicht indiskret sein, entschuldige daher bitte meine Frage: Wie bist du im Immobilienmarkt zur Zeit investiert?

  6. #5
    Avatar von Claude

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    Re: Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    Sofern man mit Euros einsteigen möchte, sei auch ein Blick auf dem Wechselkurs erlaubt, oder?

  7. #6
    Avatar von Tiblo

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    Re: Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    also für pattaya wäre es derzeit nicht sehr ratsam. zu viele immos, aber viel zu wenig kunden. desahlb stehen hier auch sehr viele objekte leer. dazu sind die preise zur zeit hier auf höchstniveau.

  8. #7
    Avatar von Serge

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    Re: Guter Zeitpunkt, um in Thai Immobilien zu investieren ?

    Zitat Zitat von ffm",p="503354
    Wie bist du im Immobilienmarkt zur Zeit investiert?
    Gar nicht.

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