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Hellste Aufregung in Thailand: Thaksin soll in Washington einen Vortrag halten

Erstellt von waanjai_2, 07.12.2010, 11:56 Uhr · 38 Antworten · 3.737 Aufrufe

  1. #31
    Bukeo
    Avatar von Bukeo
    Zitat Zitat von waanjai_2 Beitrag anzeigen
    War sicherlich ein Formfehler, der da passierte.
    ja, und das der Boonjong Wongtrairat - Mitglied der Abhisit-Koalition die Nachwahlen in Korat gewonnen hat - sicherlich auch.

    Ich scheine mit meiner Meinung wieder mal recht zu behalten - die Rothemden stehen nicht mehr hinter den Hardcores. Wenn die Nachwahl wirklich die jetzige Regierung gewonnen hat - dann wäre es in der Tat nun die beste Gelegenheit, Neuwahlen vorzubereiten.

    Abhisit geht von März/April aus - solange das Chaos noch in den Köpfen der liberalen Rothemden steckt.

    Die Thaksin Partei verliert in Korat - hoffentlich hab ich mich nicht verlesen :-)

    Ex-deputy interior minister Boonjong Wongtrairat appeared to win the by-election in Nakhon Ratchasima's Constituency 6, according to an unofficial result.
    The result showed that Boonjong got 82,091 votes compared to 63,353 votes earned by Pheu Thai Party candidate Apicha Lertpatcharakamol.

    Boonjong set to win Nakhon Ratchasima's by-election

    ich sehe schon - hellste Aufregung in Udon :-)

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  3. #32
    KKC
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    Neuwahlen wird es dann geben wenn Taxin (sorry Abhisit) sicher ist diese auch zu gewinnen.
    Sonst macht das Ganze ja keinen Sinn.

  4. #33
    Avatar von waanjai_2

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    Wenn man Nachwahlen betrachtet, dann muß man wissen, wie die vorherigen Wahlen ausgegangen waren. Sonst läuft man wie ein tumber Tor herum.

    Zunächst hier alle vorläufigen Ergebnisse:
    UPDATE: 20:05: Vote totals so far from TNN
    Bangkok Constituency 2: Apirak Kosayodhin (Democrats) 71,072 versus Pongpisut Jintasophon (Puea Thai) 30,506. Turn-out only 33%. The votes have all been counted so this semi-officially final.
    Khon Kaen Constituency 2: Preechapol Pongpanich (Puea Thai) 143,657 vs Athipprat Thatpichayangkura (Democrats) 36,318.The votes have all been counted so this semi-officially final.
    Nakhon Ratchasima Constituency 6: Boonjong Wongtrairat (Bhum Jai Thai) 82,979 vs Apicha Lertpacharakamol (Puea Thai) 63,487. The votes have all been counted so this semi-officially final.
    Ayutthaya Constituency 1: Kuakul Danchaiwijit (Chart Thai Pattana) 84,515 vs Ongart Wachirapong (Puea Thai) 78,497. The votes have all been counted so this semi-officially final although Puea Thai have requested a recount.
    Surin Constituency 3: Suparak Khuanha 105,825 (Bhum Jai Thai) vs Pathida Tantirattananond (Puea Thai) 75,511
    BP: Democrats will be happy that they retained Bangkok comfortably although they will be a little disappointed they couldn't increase their vote total in Khon Kaen and lost by more than 100,000 votes.
    For Chart Thai Pattana, they will be reasonably happy they have retained Ayutthaya (pending a possible re-count - not sure about advance voting) although in the general election and where it is likely that other parties will be competing then the narrow margin will not be sufficient.
    Bhum Jai Thai will be very happy that they were able to hold Nakhon Ratchasima reasonably comfortably, but were also able to pick-up Surin. This will strengthen their position going into the general election next year although if other parties will be competing and the move to single member constituencies then you will have Puea Thai-Bhum Jai Thai battle again. Another advantage for Bhum Jai Thai is that they are the sole hope for the Democrats to be in government in the next election.
    For Puea Thai, they will be happy with the result in Khon Kaen and the result in Khon Kaen demonstrates that where they are strong, they are very strong. They will be happy they got close to Chart Thai Pattana in Ayutthaya and in the general election with the other parties competing, they will likely see this seat (when transformed to a single seat constituency ripe to pick up), but their failure to beat Bhum Jai Thai in Surin and Nakhon Ratachasima will be a disappointment. It strengthens Bhum Jai Thai's position.

    Und so sahen die Ergebnisse der vorhergehenden Wahl der jetzt erfolgten Nachwahl aus. Daher übrigens auch der Name: Nachwahl.

    Bangkok Constituency 2: The Democrats currently hold this seat and not even a miracle will help Puea Thai. The main reasons the Democrats will win this seat are:
    1. The Democrats won all 3 of the constituency seats in this constituency in the 2007 general election and each Democrat MP received at least 120,000 votes whereas the average for the PPP (the pro-Thaksin party before Puea Thai) was less than 60,000 votes.
    2. The Democrat MP who held the seat, Somkiat Chanthawanich, is not contesting and instead the Democrats have recruited Apirak Kosayodhin, a former Bangkok governor who won the governorship in 2008 in a landslide.
    3. The seat covers the Yannawa and Sathon districts, key central business districts, and in addition to Apirak's popularity, Finance Minister Korn is an MP in this constituency and has been on the campaign trail.
    4. Many parts of this constituency were directly affected by the red shirt protests.
    BP: Puea Thai will be looking to reduce the margin so Apirak's margin is not double the Puea Thai candidate's vote count whereas the Democrats will be looking to make sure Apirak receives twice the number of votes as the Puea Thai candidate.
    Khon Kaen Constituency 2: Puea Thai currently hold this seat and it will take a miracle for the Democrats to win. The main reasons Puea Thai will win this seat are:
    1. PPP won all 3 of the constituency seats in this constituency in the 2007 general election by large margins.
    2. It has been stated in the press that this election will be a battle between Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Thai in the Northeast. So bad is Bhum Jai Thai's chance of winning here that they are not even contesting. The Democrats are.
    3. The Puea Thai candidate Preechapol Pongpanich received more than 130,000 votes in the 2007 general election. The highest place Democrat candidate didn't even break 8,000 votes.
    4. Khon Kaen is a stronghold of the Pongpanich family. Preechapol's mother (Rabiabrat) is a former Senator.
    5. According to Matichon Weekly, Suthep's goal is to get more than 50,000 votes (i.e the Democrats are not even talking about the possibility of winning).
    BP: The margin of victory is unlikely to be as large as 2007 simply because the other coalition partners are not contesting (one Chart Thai candidate received more than 50,000 votes in 2007) and well by the description in Matichon Weekly they are put significant resources into this province to increase their vote total - the other seat they are contesting is in Bangkok which is a dead certainty so there are resources they can put in in here.
    Ayutthaya Constituency 1: This is likely to be a close race. Chart Thai Pattana currently hold the seat and their candidate Kuakul Danchaiwijit, recently who was deputy transport minister, was able to Puea Thai Party's candidate Ongart Wachirapong, accompanied by deputy House Speaker and Puea Thai MP Col Apiwan Wiriyachai, drew number one for the Ayutthaya by-election.

    In Ayutthaya, Kuakul Danchaiwijit from the coalition Chart Thai Pattana Party, who has just resigned as deputy transport minister, is seeking to regain his MP seat. He was lucky to win the seat in 2007 after placing third. However, Puea Thai currently holds 4 out of the 5 seats in Ayutthaya and 2 of the 3 seats in this constituency and they will want to take the final seat. so will be looking to take the final seat. There is also significant red shirt support in the province. Nevertheless, as Chart Thai Pattana can count of the support from their coalition partners, the result will likely be close
    Surin Constituency 3: Puea Paendin did hold this seat (although this MP was a defector from the pro-Thaksin PPP) , but are not contesting. It is a straight battle between Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Thai. The Puea Thai candidate is Pathida Tantirattananond, a former member of the Provincial Administration Organisation from Kap Choeng district whereas Bhumjaithai's candidate is Suparak Khuanha, secretary to Transport Minister Sohpon Zarun and a former MP for many years in this constituency. After getting into a fight with Bhum Jai Thai Puea Paendin were thrown out of the coalition in June at Bhum Jai Thai’s request so will be tacitly supporting the Puea Thai candidate, but as you can see the Bhum Jai Thai candidate is a former MP. Surin also borders Buriram and Newin will not want to suffer a loss. Bhum Jai Thai will also be able to count on the support of their coalition partners who came quite close in the 2007 general election. Thai Rath calls its a must-win seat for Newin. The result is likely to be close.
    Nakhon Ratchasima Constituency 6: The seat will be hotly contested and the one to watch. Bhum Jai Thai will be looking to hold the seat and their candidate is the former deputy interior minister. For Puea Thai, a victory over the former deputy interior minister would strike a blow in the heart of Bhum Jai Thai and raise questions over Bhum Jai’s competitiveness in the rest of the Northeast. Puea Thai have engineered the defection of Apicha Lertpacharakamol, formerly of Puea Pandin, who placed first in the 2007 general election before a by-election in 2008 saw her lose to Boonjong. Puea Pandin Party's de-facto leader Pairote Suwanchawee is expected to join hands with Suwat Liptapanlop, de-facto leader of the coalition Ruam Chart Pattana Party, to provide tacit support to Puea Thai.
    BP: The margin of victory in each seat will also be important because a narrow victory in a by-election may not mean much particularly as more effort and resources will be focused on these by-elections than in the general election.


    Quelle: Bankok Pundit

  5. #34
    Bukeo
    Avatar von Bukeo
    Zitat Zitat von waanjai_2 Beitrag anzeigen
    Wenn man Nachwahlen betrachtet, dann muß man wissen, wie die vorherigen Wahlen ausgegangen waren. Sonst läuft man wie ein tumber Tor herum.
    du bist gut - denkst du man kann die Wahlen von 2007 mit den gestrigen Wahlen vergleichen?
    2007 war keine DP an der Regierung, 2007 war keine Gewalt-Demo mit 90 Toten aufgelöst worden.

    Umso mehr überrascht das Ergebnis, das die PT nur in Khon Kaen gewonnen hat.
    Alles andere gewann die Regierung - sogar im Isaan.

    Überrascht haben schon die Nachwahlen hier im Norden vom Januar letzen Jahres - da kam die DP bis nach Lampang hoch - also in die Hochburg der PT.

    Auf jeden Fall deckt sich das Ergebnis der Nachwahl mit den Erklärungen vieler Rothemden hier, das sie bei der Hauptwahl im nächsten Jahr gar nicht zur Wahlurne gehen.
    Hilft dann natürlich der DP, die auf jeden Fall wählen gehen :-)

    Wenn sich die PT und die Partei Newins im Isaan heisse Kämpfe liefern - zersplitten sie sich - dann wird es keine geballte Mehrheit mehr geben.
    Dazu kommt ev. noch, das es im Norden eine geringe Wahlbeteiligung geben wird - ohne Norden haben aber die Isaaner ebenso keine Mehrheit

    Auf jeden Fall wird es für die PT wohl keine Absolute geben - alles andere ist dann eigentlich nur mehr Formsache :-)

    Zitat Zitat von KKC Beitrag anzeigen
    Neuwahlen wird es dann geben wenn Taxin (sorry Abhisit) sicher ist diese auch zu gewinnen.
    Sonst macht das Ganze ja keinen Sinn.
    spätestens im Dez. 2011 muss er Wahlen abhalten - sonst läuft er Gefahr, international kritisiert zu werden.
    Aber er muss die Wahl nicht gewinnen - das kann ruhig die PT, obwohl es momentan nicht so aussieht.
    Er muss es nur schaffen, das die PT keine Absolute erhält und die jetzige Koalition die Parlamentsmehrheit hält.
    Das reicht eigentlich schon und die PT wird vom Gewinner wieder zum Verlierer.

  6. #35
    Bukeo
    Avatar von Bukeo
    hier mal ein Bericht aus amerikanischer Sicht:

    Thailand’s "Mussolini" headed for US?

    Thailand's most wanted man invited to Washington, where enemies hope he will face extradition.

    BANGKOK, Thailand — The contempt of senior Thai figures for fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, the country’s deposed former prime minister, can be measured in their World War II villain analogies.
    Parliamentarians, leading pundits and the head of Thailand’s palace-advising Privy Council have all likened Thaksin to Adolph ....... This year, the foreign minister compared Thaksin to Joseph Stalin and Benito Mussolini. Thai courts have applied a more contemporary label: terrorist.
    Despite his infamy, Thaksin is now the invited guest of legislators from the United States, Thailand’s most powerful ally. Though Thaksin’s enemies are aghast at the high-profile invite, they’re also praying America will smarten up and extradite him to a Thai prison cell.
    On Thursday, Thaksin is slated to testify to the U.S. Helsinki Commission, a federal agency monitoring global security and human rights. Of its members, nine hail from the House of Representatives, nine hail from the Senate and two others represent the U.S. State and Defense departments.
    “The invitation stands,” said Neil Simon, a Helsinki Commission spokesman. “The caliber of our witnesses is strong. What they have to say doesn’t always make leaders around the world comfortable.”

    Ousted in a 2006 military coup amid allegations of extreme corruption — and more than a few ...... comparisons — Thaksin is a former telecommunications mogul turned globetrotting fugitive.
    He is fleeing a two-year prison sentence for a conflict-of-interest land purchase. Thaksin now floats between Dubai, various African nations and Montenegro, where his investments have secured Montenegrin citizenship and a valid passport.
    He is also suspected of financing the Red Shirts, an anti-establishment faction devoted to toppling the current ruling party and forcing new elections. In April and May, the group poured into Bangkok by the tens of thousands, peaking at an estimated 150,000, to ring off parts of the city with barbed wire, bamboo fencing and an amateur security force.
    After masked men fired on troops during a nighttime army raid, the movement was crushed by an all-out army blitz that left more than 90 dead. Much of the group’s leadership remains in prison or in hiding. The government has yet to lift a “state of emergency” that military leaders justify with the suggestion of a possible armed insurgency.
    In Thaksin’s invite, the Helsinki Commission notes a lawsuit from Thaksin’s political allies alleging current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva “is guilty of crimes of humanity perpetrated during the crackdown.”
    Sen. Benjamin Cardin (D-Md.), the commission’s chairman, requests Thaksin’s perspective on improving Thailand’s “human rights situation.”
    The invite is a boon to Thaksin’s international image rehab campaign, crafted by D.C.-based attorney Robert Amsterdam. His law firm has released an 80-page study on the Red Shirts spring crackdown, cast as the “Bangkok Massacres.” The firm promotes Thaksin and his followers as victims of “political persecution.”
    To encourage the comparison, Thaksin’s team has circulated photos from his August visit with a smiling Nelson Mandela, the anti-apartheid activist and former president of South Africa.
    But unlike Mandela, who spent 27 years in an island prison, Thaksin has taken pains to avoid confinement. His U.S. invitation to help legislators expose human rights abuse has conjured his own scandal-ridden five years in office.

    http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/t...ra-extradition

  7. #36
    Avatar von waanjai_2

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    Zitat Zitat von Bukeo Beitrag anzeigen
    His law firm has released an 80-page study on the Red Shirts spring crackdown, cast as the “Bangkok Massacres.”
    Der Link funzt nicht!

    Das White Paper gibt es komplett als pdf hier:
    http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newman...aper-Final.pdf

    Wer vorgibt, dass man alle Seiten eines Konflikts berücksichtigen solle, für den ist dies eine sogar spannende Lektüre.

  8. #37
    Bukeo
    Avatar von Bukeo
    Zitat Zitat von waanjai_2 Beitrag anzeigen

    Wer vorgibt, dass man alle Seiten eines Konflikts berücksichtigen solle, für den ist dies eine sogar spannende Lektüre.
    naja, erstmal ist die Anhörung in der USA verschoben - ob dann noch Cardin zuständig ist, bleibt abzuwarten.
    Ich betrachte es als Propaganda, wie auch die Anzeige an den IStGH - die ja sowieso zurückgewiesen wird.

  9. #38
    Avatar von waanjai_2

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    Alles ist doch wirklich so einfach. So einfach wie das Leben, sagt sich der Armeechef.

    Einfach sagen, man würde dem anderen nicht trauen. Schon berichten Bangkoks Medien darüber aber vergessen ihre Aufgabe, den Gerüchten nachzugehen. Ja, so sind sie, die Medien in Bangkok. Unübertroffen.

    "Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha said he was not concerned about the accusation by Mr Jatu.... that the army was involved in the deaths of some protesters. Gen Prayuth said Mr Jatu.... had no credibility at all in his eyes."


    Bangkok Post : Jatu....: Soldiers shot into temple grounds

  10. #39
    Bukeo
    Avatar von Bukeo
    Zitat Zitat von waanjai_2 Beitrag anzeigen
    Alles ist doch wirklich so einfach. So einfach wie das Leben, sagt sich der Armeechef.

    Einfach sagen, man würde dem anderen nicht trauen. Schon berichten Bangkoks Medien darüber aber vergessen ihre Aufgabe, den Gerüchten nachzugehen. Ja, so sind sie, die Medien in Bangkok. Unübertroffen.
    wäre ev. besser, wenn du dich mal vom Expat-Club Udons trennen würdest um dich direkt mit den Rothemden-Thais zu unterhalten. Ich habe mittlerweile seit Mai wohl mehrere Hundert Gespräche mit Rothemden hinter mir. Hier gibt man Jatu...., Nattawut und Saeh Daeng die grösste Mitschuld am Chaos - ich denke, wenn ich mir die Nachwahlen ansehe - das dies im Isaan nicht anders ist.

    Ich denke, du kämpfst im Prinzip für eine deutsche Demokratie in TH - die hier niemand haben will. Die Rothemden wollen genauso viel Demokratie - das die Gratiskuh erhalten bleibt - nicht mehr.
    Ev. gehen dir die Augen ja bei der nächsten Wahl auf, wenn es statt der Absoluten nicht mal einen einfach Wahlsieg der PT gibt und Newin viele Stimmen der PT einsackt.

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